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Estimates of Southern Ocean primary production—constraints from predator carbon demand and nutrient drawdown

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first_imgIn view of the wide range of estimates for the total primary production for the Southern Ocean south of the Subantarctic Front—current estimates range from 1.2 to 3.5 Gtonne C year−1—we have examined two indirect methods for assessing primary production. First, we have estimated the primary production needed to sustain the carbon requirements of the endotherm top predators in the ecosystem. Estimation of the carbon requirements for crabeater seals of about 7 Mtonne C year−1 is extrapolated to a value for all endotherm predators of 15–30 Mtonne C year−1. Current data indicate that 70–80% of the diet of this suite of predators is zooplankton (predominantly the euphausiid krill), making for highly efficient transfer from primary production to top predators. Our best estimate of Southern Ocean primary production by this method is of the order of 1.7 Gtonne C year−1, or an averaged areal primary production of about 30–40 g C m−2 year−1. Our second approach is to estimate primary production from the drawdown of inorganic nutrients, based on the limited suite of studies from which an annual nutrient deficit can be calculated. Again, this indicates annual primary production of the order of 1.5 Gtonne. Although both methods have inherent uncertainties, taken together they provide a relatively robust constraint on annual primary production. For both methods to underestimate primary production by the 1–1.5 Gtonne C implied by the higher current estimates, carbon export from the Southern Ocean pelagic ecosystem would need to be much higher than is normally found in other oceans.last_img read more

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Former Atletico, Real Madrid and Barca coach Antic dies

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first_imgAntic, who first moved to Spain as a player with Real Zaragoza in 1978, managed Atletico across three different spells between 1995 and 2000 and led the club to a league and cup double in his first season.He also coached Barcelona during the second part of the 2002-03 campaign after replacing the sacked Louis van Gaal. His first stint at one of Spain’s big clubs came during a 10-month spell with Real in 1991-92.On the international stage, he led his native Serbia to the 2010 World Cup, where his team beat Germany 1-0 in the group stage but failed to advance to the knockout rounds.The Serbian football federation paid tribute to Antic as it confirmed the news of his death on its website. Serbian coach Radomir Antic, the only person to manage Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid and Barcelona, died on Monday at the age of 71 following a long illness.”The Atletico de Madrid family is mourning the passing of Radomir Antic, one of our legendary coaches. You will forever live in our hearts. Rest in peace,” the club tweeted.Spanish sports daily Marca said Antic had been suffering from a serious illness for a long time. “All those who knew Radomir will from now on have an emptiness in their heart and Serbia can be proud to have had such a man who was abroad and represented a source of pride,” the federation said.After leaving Partizan Belgrade in 1976 to sign for Fenerbahce, Antic moved to Zaragoza for two years before finishing his career in England with Luton Town.He helped the club achieve promotion to the English top flight in 1982, and scored the goal that helped them stay up on the final day of the following season.”We are devastated to learn of the passing of Town legend Radomir Antic, at the age of 71. A true Hatters hero, for promotion and preventing relegation. The thoughts of all at Kenilworth Road are with his family and friends at this terribly sad time. Rest in peace, Raddy,” the club tweeted.center_img Topics :last_img read more

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#JAVotes2016: Portia power! Comrades out in numbers in support of Simpson Miller

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first_imgIt’s Portia’s place, but the Comrades in South East St Andrew are taking no chances. From Maxfield Avenue to Payne Land to Whitefield Town and Majesty Gardens, they were out in their numbers already casting their votes — leaving no doubt that it is Portia Simpson- Miller that they are voting for. In front of every polling station there is a string of orange clad persons dictating their support for Simpson-Miller. The handful of Jamaica Labour Party workers have been seen at one or two stations but they are out numbered by the sellers offering breakfast, lunch, fruits and liquor. Simpson Miller is scheduled to vote at 9 a.m. at the Whitfield Town All Age School.last_img

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JUNIOR CHAMBER DONEGAL CALL ON YOUNG PEOPLE NOT TO WASTE THEIR VOTE

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first_imgJunior Chamber Ireland Donegal are a local youth group for 18 – 40 year olds, made up of members who want to improve themselves and the world around them. They feel that voting in the local election on the 23rd of May is of the utmost importance and would encourage anyone who is registered not to waste their vote.Wasting a vote can come in two forms, one not voting at all, and two voting without being educated on the candidates or what they stand for. JCI Donegal carried out an independent survey on the local election on their Facebook page.The results found that 92% of the respondents (aged 18-34) were registered to vote, however 15% were not going to use their voting privileges.JCI Donegal president Emma Boylan commented “A great way to improve the world around us is to vote. Voting for candidates that are tackling issues that are important can change the world for the better. I would encourage anyone who is thinking of not voting to reconsider.“One vote can make a difference. One candidate can make a difference to our community and the wider world. However, education is also key. I would urge the people of Donegal to learn what the candidates are standing for and to vote for those they feel represent their needs.” Results from the survey also found that the issues respondents would like addressed were health care, jobs, taxes and local development to name a few.JCI Donegal would like to remind young people that the only way for the issues they care about to be addressed is voting for the right person to deal with them.A lot of young people are highly informed on politics and each candidate. However some young people may feel they do not know enough about the election candidates to make an informed decision. They may therefore chose not to use their vote or vote without being fully informed.As Election Day draws closer JCI Donegal would ask voters to educate themselves on the candidates and the issues. Young people can be educated on the issues by the candidates themselves on the doorstep.JCI Donegal would also suggest reading the newspapers, listening to radio or TV candidate debates. In local elections, it can be very effective to pick up the telephone and speak to a candidate. Most candidates have embraced the digital world, look at their websites, their Facebook pages etc. Message them on these platforms and find out who to vote for. Every vote can make a difference, JCI Donegal asks the people of Donegal to make a difference on the 23rd of May by using their vote but also to learn about the candidate’s stances and find out whose beliefs are in line with theirs. In the words of past JCI member; “The margin is narrow, but the responsibility is clear” and “The ignorance of one voter in a democracy impairs the security of all.” – John F. KennedyJUNIOR CHAMBER DONEGAL CALL ON YOUNG PEOPLE NOT TO WASTE THEIR VOTE was last modified: May 21st, 2014 by StephenShare this:Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window)Click to share on Pocket (Opens in new window)Click to share on Telegram (Opens in new window)Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window)Click to share on Skype (Opens in new window)Click to print (Opens in new window)Tags:donegalEmma BoylanJunior Chamber Irelandvotinglast_img read more

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SA roots in literature: new reviews

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first_img26 November 2004“I am an African . I owe my being to the Khoi and the San . the migrants who left Europe . the Malay slaves from the East . those transported from India and China . the grandchild of the warrior men and women . taught never to dishonour the cause of freedom.” – Thabo Mbeki, opening of the new SA Constitution, 1996.The dawn of the new South Africa spawned a new quest for ancestral roots and the “real” story of how the Rainbow Nation got here – topics covered in an increasingly wide range of literature.Here are quick reviews of a selection of new books from South African writers in search of the holistic truth espoused by President Thabo Mbeki.What’s in a (South African) name? – Despite generations of official efforts to keep South Africans apart, racial mingling goes back to the very first years when white and black met at the Cape of Good Hope.Dan Sleigh’s epic tale of the Khoe woman Eva/Krotoa, who grew up in Jan van Riebeeck’s household and married a Danish colleague, is complemented by Theresa Benade’s romantic version of events at the early Cape, seen through the eyes of Anna De Koning, acquaintance of Eva and product of an unsolemnised slave/European union.Jackie Loos gives deeper insight into the unromantic shenanigans of slaves who didn’t make it out of bondage, while Michael Morris puts the course of events and early relationships which shaped the Cape, and later the whole of South Africa, into perspective.Stephen Taylor’s exploration of the 1782 survivors throws a whole new light on “the other side of the frontier” and accounts for some interesting “mixed marriage” origins previously only hinted at. Ingest and enjoy! IslandsBy Dan Sleigh (Secker and Warburg, 2004)Translated from the original Afrikaans version by Andre Brink, this sumptuous testimony to everyday events at the Cape soon after Van Riebeeck’s arrival has been described as “the great South African novel” everyone has been waiting for.Drawing on the early Dutch East Indies Company journals, archival researcher Dan Sleigh reads between the lines of official entries and creates a fictional voice for Krotoa, the Khoe woman who was taken into Van Riebeeck’s employ and married Danish surgeon and explorer Pieter Meerhoff, and her daughter Pieternella.By dissecting Pieternella’s life into the perspectives of seven men closely associated with her, from birth through her education in Mauritius, return to South Africa and marriage to Dutch farmer Daniel Zaaiman, Sleigh also provides an intimate account of the lives of the free burghers, slaves and kingpins at the Castle in the Cape’s formative years.Though hard-core critics are wary of deviating into speculative testimonies, there can be little doubt that Sleigh’s reconstruction of the soap opera of early Cape relationships and politics is firmly rooted in fact. While indulging in his own romantic love affair with Pieternella, he takes great pains, gleaned over years of non-fiction research and writing, to present documented background.Orders, reviews, further information:Amazon.comKalahari.net Exclusive Books Kites of Good FortuneBy Theresa Benade (New Africa Books, 2004)A descendant of Angela of Bengal, a slave in the employ of Jan van Riebeeck, Theresa Benade traces the life of her daughter, Anna de Koning, who married Swede Olof Bergh and experienced comparative luxury for one born into slavery.Using archival and museum research from the reign of the Van der Stels and before, Benade weaves the happenings at the early Cape into a tale of romance and heartbreak, the aim of which is to define an elusive South African identity somewhere between Europe and the East.Besides its poignance for all South Africans with mixed roots, it provides a background of social and political factors at play and an insight into slave/European relations before De Koning’s death in 1734. An easy, fulfilling read.Orders, further information:Kalahari.net  Echoes of SlaveryBy Jackie Loos (New Africa Books, 2004)Timeously published for Unesco Year of the Slave, Cape Town historian Jackie Loos documents intimate accounts of conditions of slaves at the Cape before emancipation in 1834.Using scant testimonies of slaves, who were usually not allowed to testify in court, Loos gets behind the scenes of the forces at work on European estates and the Slave Lodge which played no small part in shaping apartheid.From beatings and sexual exploitation by harsh masters to heinous executions and occasional happy tales, her candid commentary, much of it published in weekly Argus columns, opens the doors for more in-depth research.A veritable feast for anyone with slave ancestors, or those oblivious to the real conditions that didn’t make the text books.Orders, further information:Kalahari.net  Every Step of the WayBy Michael Morris (HSRC Press, 2004)A much-needed textbook for the new SA, Argus reporter and historian Michael Morris’s “Every Step of the Way”, commissioned by the Department of Education, is a far cry from the Great Trek and Anglo-Boer War offerings that 1980s students were force-fed.A balanced look at the real forces that shaped South African politics from the time the Dutch arrived at the Cape in 1652, the book analyses the factors that preceded and created apartheid, with Morris’s philosophical insights into what makes history providing solid groundwork for aspiring historians.It’s refreshing, simple without being over-simplified, and draws on alternative sources which provide a deeper background to early history than the official pre-apartheid version. From the Eva/Krotoa story to Makana and the repatriation of Sara Baartman, there’s food for thought for any South African who’s ever wanted to trace their ancestral roots.Though the Voortrekkers are given their due, their background is placed in a much broader context where it is revealed, among other interesting facts, that the great great granddaughter of Shayk Yusuf, regarded as the founder of Islam in South Africa, married into the family of slain Voortrekker hero Piet Retief.As Morris says, “The real puzzle of our history lies in its apparent ordinariness, in the seemingly habitual way of doing things”. This book makes those realities accessible to all.Orders, further information:HSRC PublishersKalahari.net  The Caliban ShoreBy Stephen Taylor (Faber and Faber, 2004)Though he does not set out specifically with this purpose, South African-born author Stephen Taylor offers a startling insight into undocumented “mixed marriages” in the 19th century along the area known as the Wild Coast because of its notorious ability to lure ships to their grave.Drawing on published records of the ill-fated Grosvenor, which ran aground north of Port St Johns on 4 August 1782, a testimony given by one of its 19 survivors and new research findings, Taylor documents the journey of the ship from India to the trek of the six men who reached a Dutch farm outside Port Elizabeth – and, finally, the discovery of the wreck in 1999.A harrowing account of a sequence of errors, misunderstandings and fraudulent claims by treasure-seekers keen to cash in on the claim that the wreck carried a rare Persian treasure, the book also offers convincing proof that descendants of at least one of the three British women who became a Tshomane chief’s wife still live in the area.While he didn’t get to find anyone who could prove direct descent, Taylor did meet members of the abeLunge, who, with paler complexion and aquiline features, are brought up knowing they are descended from the ship people. Read it and believe!Orders, further information:Amazon.comBarnes&Noble.com Kalahari.net Exclusive Books  Want to use this article in your publication or on your website?See: Using SAinfo materiallast_img read more

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SA ocean gliders tackle climate change

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first_img22 October 2013 South African scientists have deployed the first robotics platform in the Southern Ocean in a bid to gauge the precise links between climate and the carbon cycle in the most southern waters of the world’s oceans. The pioneering project is being led by the marine robotics programme of South Africa’s Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), and forms part of the CSIR’s Southern Ocean Carbon Climate Observatory programme. Announcing the project on Monday, the CSIR said the deployment of the robotics platform over 1 000 kilometres south-west of Cape Town would build on pioneering work from 2012, when the CSIR completed the longest high-resolution missions in the Southern Ocean using five unmanned buoyancy seagliders. The new robotics platform will combine both wave and buoyancy-driven gliders in an integrated fleet that will undertake a five- to six-month mission to the Antarctic pack-ice and back “at a crucial period, when there are currently no ship-based observations in place”, the CSIR said in a statement.Understanding ocean-climate links According to the CSIR’s Ocean Systems and Climate research group leader, Dr Pedro Monteiro, this will be the first global deployment of robotics-based carbon dioxide (CO2) observations in the Southern Ocean, signalling the start of a multi-platform strategy that will hopefully close the uncertainty gap in the global annual CO2 flux estimates within three years. “These deployments are a great leap towards aiding us in generating a more accurate understanding of the link between climate and the carbon cycle in the ocean,” Monteiro said. “Combined with global coupled models, this will allow us to understand the intricate relationship of the ocean and atmosphere processes and how these regulate the carbon cycle and ultimately the earth’s climate. It also underlines the important role of the Southern Ocean in global and regional climate.” The mission coordinator, the CSIR’s Dr Sebastiaan Swart, explained the significance of the dual deployment: “For the first time, we are deploying a wave glider in the Southern Ocean, but of more significance to climate researchers, we have twinned it with a seaglider that dives below the wave glider. “This will allow us acquire valuable information from both gliders in an integrated approach, but more importantly, this means we can link CO2 flux between the ocean and the atmosphere at the surface of the ocean with understanding of the connected physical and biogeochemical processes that are occurring below the surface and in the ocean interior,” Swart said.Wave and buoyancy-driven gliders The deployed liquid robotics wave glider is designed to ride on the ocean surface using the vertical movements of ocean waves to propel it forward. It has specialised instruments on board that measure CO2, the ocean acidity, and other physical variables of the surface ocean. The data generated are sent via satellite communications and viewed in real-time by climate scientists back at the CSIR. The buoyancy-driven seaglider dives between the surface and a depth of one kilometre. As the glider moves through the water column, it collects valuable data that describe the physics (such as temperature, salinity and the amount of light penetrating into the surface waters) and biogeochemistry (such as phytoplankton and oxygen concentrations of the ocean). These data are transmitted via satellite every time the glider comes back to the surface. Both gliders are fully controlled by pilots back on land who guide their navigation and activity. In 2012, the CSIR launched five buoyancy seagliders which were retrieved in February and March this year. According to the CSIR, the data from these gliders are currently being analysed by master’s and doctoral students at the CSIR and the University of Cape Town, with the first scientific papers ready to be submitted for publication in international journals. Engineering students from the Cape Peninsula University of Technology have also been employed to complete their in-service training and obtain scarce skills from this highly advanced type of marine engineering and robotics technology. This contributes to the CSIR’s HCD goals and skills generation. “We plan to deploy another set of these gliders in December this year on the SA Agulhas II during its annual voyage to Antarctica so that we can expand our observational coverage,” Swart said. Monteiro praised the team for its progrees, noting that Swart was working “with some of South Africa’s the best ocean robotics engineers in Derek Needham and Andre Hoek and their new students Sinekhaya Bilana and JP Smit. “This team is rapidly becoming one of the best-skilled global robotics teams with special experience in Southern Ocean conditions and constraints.” Funded mainly by the Department of Science and Technology, the Southern Ocean robotics project is being undertaken with local partners Sea Technology Services, the South African Maritime Safety Association and the SA National Antarctic Programme; and with US partners the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory and the Applied Physics Laboratory at the University of Washington. SAinfo reporter and the Council for Scientific and Industrial Researchlast_img read more

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Finalists decided in Elite Eight

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first_imgBy BEN HARRISQueensland Chiefs and New South Wales Mets will be the favourites for the Elite Eight titles in the women’s and men’s opens divisions after finishing on top of the ladder in their respective divisions.Tomorrow is finals day across all divisions at the 2013 X-Blades National Touch League in Coffs Harbour.After seven rounds of the Elite Eight Series, the top four were decided.The women’s opens have the Chiefs, Mets, NSW Country Mavericks and the NSW Scorpions.The men’s finalists are Mets, Queensland Country Outlaws, Mavericks and Scorpions.The defending men’s premiers, Scorpions, snuck into the top four with a thrilling 2-1 victory over the Queensland South Stingrays in the final round.The match was an early finals match as whoever won the game qualified for the semis.It sets up a mouth-watering clash tomorrow between the two teams that have contested the last two men’s opens finals at the NTLs.The Scorpions won both encounters but with the Mets undefeated, the Michael Moussa-coached side have all the momentum.In another huge clash, the Outlaws take on the Mavericks in the battle of country supremacy.The Outlaws got up in their preliminary round match on Thursday.If NSW Country are to win the title they will have to do so without the services of Dylan Hennessy.The playmaker injured his left shoulder in a match on Thursday and he will be out for at least six weeks.But the match will also see two of the game’s smartest minds up against each other between Outlaws coach Patrick Grehan and his old sparring partner Mark Boland of the Mavericks.The last time the two mentors met was at last year’s State of Origin series where Grehan achieved a 2-1 victory.In the women’s semi-finals, the Chiefs meet the Scorpions and the Mets take on the Mavericks.The Mavericks will head into their semi-final clash on a high after defeating the Mets 7-4 today.However, the defending champions did not play Australian captain Louise Winchester for the match.Meanwhile the Chiefs went through the competition undefeated after two comfortable wins today.They are the team to beat as they have a host of champions and speedsters at their disposal.The Scorpions have been improving with every game during this tournament and on their day, could produce an upset.The women’s semi-finals begin at 9.50am tomorrow followed by the men’s at 10.45am.The women’s final is at 3.30pm and the men’s is at 4.40pm.   You can keep up-to-date with all of the latest news, results and information from the 2013 X-Blades National Touch League in the following ways:Websiteswww.ntl.mytouchfooty.comwww.austouch.com.auSocial MediaFacebook – www.facebook.com/touchfootballaustraliaTwitter – www.twitter.com/touchfootyaus (be sure to use the hashtag #NTL2013)Instagram – search for ‘Touch Football Australia’YouTube – www.youtube.com/touchfootballausTouch Football Australia will be streaming matches live on their YouTube page.Related LinksElite Eight day threelast_img read more

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9 months agoMan Utd midfielder Herrera hails Solskjaer tactics for Spurs win

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first_imgMan Utd midfielder Herrera hails Solskjaer tactics for Spurs winby Paul Vegas9 months agoSend to a friendShare the loveManchester United midfielder Ander Herrera hailed manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s tactics for their win at Tottenham.Marcus Rashford scored the only goal to earn an important 1-0 win over Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League, by latching onto a magnificent long ball from the talismanic Paul Pogba in midfield. “The manager told us that at the beginning of the game it would be difficult to make short passes,” Herrera explained. “He told us that it would be easier for us to switch the play and to look – almost without looking – to the other side of the pitch to switch the ball, because that is where we were going to find spaces.“We scored like that, so thank you to the game plan as well.” About the authorPaul VegasShare the loveHave your saylast_img read more

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21 days agoWolves captain Conor Coady: We must build on Besiktas Europa League win

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first_imgWolves captain Conor Coady: We must build on Besiktas Europa League winby Paul Vegas21 days agoSend to a friendShare the loveWolves captain Conor Coady says they must make the most of their Europa League win at Besiktas.Coady says Wolves must build on the famous win and try to go as far as possible in the Europa League.He said: “I was saying to (sporting director) Kevin Thelwell in the changing room; the distance that this club has come in the last few years is amazing.“To beat Besiktas 1-0 in the Europa League (a team) who are usually in the Champions League is what dreams are made of.“But we need to use this as a springboard to set us forward because we do not just want to be a number in this competition, we want to try and go as far as possible.”But honest skipper Coady believes improvements can still be made.He said: “I think it is always important coming to a place like this that you do stay organised and solid, now we have done that I think it gives us a base for big Willy (Boly) to keep his cool in the box and put the ball in the back of the net!“It was a good night but a lot of improvement to do.“We can play better. We did not keep the ball as well as we should have or create as much as we could have. The feeling at the end to win a game like that was brilliant.” About the authorPaul VegasShare the loveHave your saylast_img read more

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Everyone Thinks Justin Verlander Belongs In The Hall Of Fame So Why

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10Adam Wainwright39.434.036.7 9Jon Lester45.635.040.3 10Mark Buehrle59.235.847.5 Source: Baseball-Reference.com 2Justin Verlander69.848.359.0 In the wake of Justin Verlander throwing his third career no-hitter on Sunday — becoming just the sixth pitcher in major league history to do so — the debate didn’t seem to be whether the Astros ace was worthy of the Hall of Fame, but rather what cap he would wear in it.1To us, there’s no debate: It should be Detroit’s. Even Major League Baseball’s official Twitter account called it “ANOTHER line on Justin Verlander’s Hall of Fame résumé.” But are we all being a bit too hasty?By at least one smart measure of Hall-worthiness, Verlander is not yet deserving of a berth in Cooperstown. Cited by many sabermetrically-inclined voters, Jaffe Wins Above Replacement Score, or JAWS, is the average of a player’s career wins above replacement2JAWS uses the Baseball-Reference.com version of this stat, so I will do the same throughout this article. and his WAR over his seven best seasons (“peak WAR”). To determine if a player belongs in the Hall, a player’s JAWS is compared with the average JAWS of existing Hall of Famers at his position (because it’s easier to accrue value at, say, starting pitcher than at catcher). If the player’s JAWS is higher, the system recommends a yes vote; if the Hall of Famers’ JAWS is higher, the player falls short. Although JAWS is an imperfect yardstick (for example, it doesn’t include postseason stats, nor does it account for unique accomplishments like, say, pitching three no-hitters), electing only people above its positional standards ensures that the quality of Hall of Fame players does not decrease.With a JAWS of 59.0 so far in his career, Verlander remains below the JAWS average for starting pitchers of 61.5. But he’s not alone. No active starting pitcher meets the JAWS standard (although some may do so by the time they retire). In fact, neither does any starter who has thrown a single pitch this entire decade. That suggests a problem not with Verlander or other modern pitchers, but with the standard. Simply put, it’s too high given the usage patterns of today’s starting pitchers.3For the record, this isn’t just a problem with JAWS. Perhaps the most famous old-school standard for a Hall of Fame starting pitcher, winning 300 games, may also now be obsolete; it’s been 10 years since anyone won their 300th, and people are openly wondering if it will ever happen again.As pitch counts and bullpens have become bigger parts of the game, we’ve gone from 1,034 complete games pitched in the 1978 season to 266 in 1997 to just 42 last year. From 1871 to 1953, a period that includes at least part of the careers of about two-thirds of Hall of Fame starting pitchers, starters accounted for more than 80 percent of all innings pitched every season. In 2018, that share was 60 percent. It’s simply not fair to compare starting pitchers of the past few decades — let alone of the past few years, a period when “bullpenning” has exploded in popularity — with bygone Hall of Famers who regularly exceeded 300 innings pitched in a year.What we can do instead is sketch out a new standard, based on the premise that the Hall of Fame should immortalize the greatest starting pitchers of each era, even if those eras are not directly comparable. Verlander’s numbers may not be able to hold a candle to those of, say, the deadball era, but he deserves recognition as an elite hurler in the context of our current era, the bullpen-happy 2010s. The average season from 1901 to 20044I started with 1901 because that is the year the American League was founded and “modern” baseball (defined broadly) began; I ended with 2004 because players who were active in 2005 and later are still having their Hall of Fame candidacies considered by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. had 10 active starting pitchers who were eventually elected to Cooperstown, so we can maintain the Hall’s relative historical standards by electing the top 10 best starting pitchers in the game today. By JAWS, those are: 4Max Scherzer60.248.654.4 5CC Sabathia63.039.351.2 7Félix Hernández50.738.644.6 6CC Sabathia63.039.351.2 3Clayton Kershaw67.749.658.6 5Max Scherzer60.248.654.4 Even though none of them yet measures up to the traditional JAWS standard, it’s clear that the likes of Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw and Verlander should be Hall of Famers by this method. But the No. 10 pitcher on the list, Adam Wainwright, is probably not a Hall of Famer — and his 36.7 JAWS likely shouldn’t be used as the new standard. That’s because young studs like Aaron Nola (20.2 JAWS at age 26) are still racking up stats and could eventually displace the bottom several names on the list. So let’s try looking at the version of this list from, say, 2012. That’s long enough ago that the list is closer to being final, but it’s recent enough that it reflects the context of how starting pitchers were deployed during Verlander’s career (in fact, as of 2019, 2012 is the exact midpoint of his MLB career). 1Zack Greinke70.847.659.2 8Johan Santana51.745.048.3 Shaded players are no longer active.* Already elected to the Hall of Fame.Source: Baseball-Reference.com RkPitcherCareer WARPeak WARJAWS 2019′s most Hall of Fame-worthy starting pitchersTop 10 active starting pitchers by Jaffe Wins Above Replacement Score, through Sept. 3, 2019 2012′s most Hall of Fame-worthy starting pitchersTop 10 starting pitchers who were active in 2012 by Jaffe Wins Above Replacement Score, through Sept. 3, 2019 1Zack Greinke70.847.659.2 4Roy Halladay*64.350.657.4 7Cole Hamels59.337.648.5 8Chris Sale45.239.542.3 RkPitcherCareer WARPeak WARJAWS 3Clayton Kershaw67.749.658.6 9Tim Hudson58.138.348.2 2Justin Verlander69.848.359.0 A few names might change on this list, albeit somewhat predictably. It would be surprising if Chris Sale (42.3 JAWS at age 30) didn’t crack it. Madison Bumgarner (33.6 JAWS at age 30) and Stephen Strasburg (30.8 JAWS at age 31) are young enough that they could get there in time as well. Félix Hernández (44.6 JAWS at age 33) and Jon Lester (40.3 JAWS at age 35) are close but may be running out of gas. In all likelihood, though, the first several names on this list are safe — which would mean that we know the JAWS threshold for cracking the top 10. Essentially, it looks like amassing around 50 JAWS for your career is enough to guarantee your place as one of the top 10 starting pitchers of the early 2010s. And, if the trend of increased bullpen usage of the past few years continues through the next decade, the standard for the early 2020s may be even lower.This revision has a couple of implications for Hall of Fame selection that voters should heed before it’s too late. First, despite falling well short of historical standards, candidates like Johan Santana (who received very little support on the one Hall of Fame ballot he appeared on, despite currently being the eighth-best starter active in 2012) deserve closer looks, as they were elite for their era. Second, yes — Justin Verlander is a no-doubt Hall of Famer. Hopefully, by the time he is up for a vote in the 2020s, voters will opt to view his JAWS as dominant among his peers, rather than mediocre within the Hall.Check out our latest MLB predictions. 6Cole Hamels59.337.648.5 read more

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